Trade is in the growth

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As anticipated "Kommersant", in February compared with January 2009, Rosstat for the first time in five months of record growth in producer prices - at 2.9%. The main reason for the growth of industrial prices - stabilization and even some increase in commodity prices in world markets. Prices are increasing and the food industry due to cost, imported raw materials, but in the main sectors of processing, such as production machinery and equipment, they have continued to decline.

In February compared with January 2009, producer prices (PPI), according to data released yesterday by Rosstat, increased by 2,9%, resuming growth after a five-reduction. The fact that rising prices in the industry will resume, "Kommersant" suggests even in mid-February (see Issue of 16 February). And most analysts noted the stabilization and even some increase in world prices than raw materials and energy. "PPI in Russia has traditionally reflected the dynamics of prices in the commodity sector. There was a strong recession, then he stopped and appeared some compensatory growth, which immediately caught our PPI", - considers Vladimir Salnikov of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term forecasting.

In February compared with January 2009, the most notable increase in prices observed in the liquefaction and regasification of natural gas - by 26,1%, production of petroleum gas - at 18,6%, in manufacture of coke and petroleum products - by 15,9% and production minerals, except fuel and energy, which mainly comprise metal ores - by 4,3%. "In January and February 2009, oil prices were slightly higher than at the end of 2008. And the price of metals in rubles in February, rising," - said Tatyana Orlova from ING Russia. Meanwhile interlocutor "Kommersant" in one of Investbank noted that "the situation in March, with prices for metals are again beginning to deteriorate - they fall."

The picture of industrial prices in February are mixed across sectors of industry. Price increases accelerated in industries focused on current consumption. Thus, in the food and tobacco industry PPI growth accelerated to 0.8% in January to 1.1% in February 2009 and from 1,1% to 2,8%, respectively. In the production of textile industry price growth has accelerated from 0,9% to 1,1%. As noted by Vladimir Salnikov, the increase in prices in those industries driven by appreciation of the import of raw materials and the first will be handed to the final consumer, ie the impact on inflation. "It seems that manufacturers adjust prices for imports," - a Tatiana Orlova.

Deflation continues in the manufacturing sector, which focused on the production of durable goods: they showed the greatest decline in production in late 2008-early 2009 (see "Kommersant" on 17 February). In the production of vehicles and equipment in February, prices fell by 2.7%, finished metal products - by 2%, electrical equipment - by 0,9%.

Most of the "Kommersant" Economists do not consider the resumption of growth PPI obvious sign of the beginning of the restoration industry. "One month is very difficult to judge", - said Alexei Moiseyev of Renaissance Capital. "Signs that all is normal, I can not see," - said Tatiana Orlova. However, the government prepared to take this recovery started. At the meeting of the Governmental Commission for Regional Development in Novokuznetsk (see p. 4) The First Vice Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the economy showed positive signs. "The situation is changing for the better compared with the beginning of the year", - he said, referring to the materials of monitoring the situation in sixteen regions, prepared for the meeting. The source of the positive master Shuvalova are all the same metallurgical and coal industry.

Some improvement in the industry in February 2009 and noted "the economic climate survey" of more than 1 thousand enterprises from different sectors, which meets the Institute of Economy in Transition (IET). According to the IET survey in February, more and more enterprises to note that demand is falling is not so intense as in November-December 2008, sales stabilized. "Positive changes have taken place in the lending industry by banks. In February, the 28% of companies can afford to borrow the money there", - the IET.

In any case, economists now agree that the fall promproizvodstva in February will be far less significant than in January 2009. Rosstat data on the status of Industry in February 2009 will be available in the first half of next week.